THIS REPORT IS BEING WRITTEN FROM FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF LEGEND NUMISMATICS. WE DEAL IN HIGH END TOP POP, TOP GRADE COINS. OTHER DEALERS WILL HAVE DIFFERENT EXPERIENCES WHO DO NOT. WE STATE ONLY FACTS FROM OUR PERFORMANCE AND OBSERVATIONS
THE BALTIMORE SHOW
As always Mary Counts and team work really hard to make Baltimore a friendly and good show to attend. This show attendance was moderate-how ever due to the auctions many world class buyers were roaming the floor.
Our show overall turned out 100X better then we expected. Our March was really good and and we simply were not sure if action would carry over to the show. Did it ever!
Starting with our regular “super secret buyer” our sales were strong. In fact we pretty much sold every one something. Selling was easy as most dealers similar to us were starved for coins (like us). By the time the show opened, we had sold well into six figures. Even our “super secret” stealth seller had a record show-before the doors opened too! It is VERY important note that on the wholesale side-for our CAC coins we virtually got the FULL prices they were listed for on our web site. With so little on the floor, dealers need to restock and have something to sell to make money. Sales to collectors were super strong (as the norm) for a Baltimore Show.
A VOLCANO HITS THE COIN MARKET
From our last weeks Market Report:
We are confident next week we will be typing our Market Report with sheer exhaustion, happiness from all we bought, and we will be crowing how strong the sales were with all the record prices realized. If we end up on the losing end, the market will be insanely strong-that’s how strong our bids are!
WE TOLD YOU SO!!!!
Without a doubt, the upper end of the coin market rose 10-20% this past week. Three things propelled the rise: TWO MAJOR FRESH auctions (Blue Moon and Pogue), incredible consumer confidence (in the coin market), and a serious LACK of TRUE quality coins.
The Pogue and Blue Moon Collections sparked intense interest-even luring long sleeping collectors out of their sheds. Plus, we have witnessed a silent spike in the amount and size of a new breed of collectors coming into the market in the past few months. We know you will see almost NO Pogue coins for resale. Blue Moon you won’t see many either. It is clear the demand for great coins far outstrips the supply. Remember, since the Pogue sale was supposed to happen last September, 3 trillion has been made in the stock market and people feel wealthy and good again. It only takes a fraction of a fraction percent to make the coin market rock-and that is what is unfolding right before our eyes.
There is a HUGE downside however. We are talking about HIGH END HIGH QUALITY coins ONLY being in demnd. Not average nice coins. Sadly, we have witnessed the gap between CAC and NON CAC coins grow even further for the most part. Look at ANY auction-the prices realized are firm proof of that. To realize a strong price, the coin MUST be 100% all there. 98% does not cut it for the new breed of collector who lives for quality and eye appeal.
On the average even dreck side, things have changed a little. A ton of these coins have FINALLY gone away. The Utah Billionaire who now wants to be Eliasberg jr. is really just filling holes. He probably has now spent over $75 million since he came into the market last July. At first he was buying bigger million dollars coins. Then he started buying up collections. Today he is the sensation of the internet for dozens of dealers who have sold him coins to fill his holes. He is now just seeking the any coins -so long as they are PCGS. Even if he has only spent $30 million removing the so/so stuff, that is an awful lot of coins now gone AND it clearly has freed up dealers cash flows. The only reason he will not get hurt-he is doing this for fun (nice huh) and the coins are going into an educational foundation and will not be sold in our lifetime. Sit on any coin forever and chances are you will not get crunched. Do note though, the split between real GEM coins and stuff as we have said has grown even larger.
The current level of confidence in the upper end of the market fore sure is stronger then 2008! In our opinion, the coin market today was full of pent up demand and was waiting to break out when the time was right. This past week, the time proved more then right.
We can NOT stress enough how important it is to work with a good dealer. You WILL avoid losses and problems down the road.
THE POGUE SALE
We are a bit saddened that one of the all time greatest collections is now dispursed. To participate and represent great collectors was both a thrill and honor. Last night at the Pogue Sale alone Legend Numismatics on behalf of itself and customers spent in EXCESS of $5 million hammer! No, we did not buy the 1804. And NO Bob Simpson was not our biggest buyer (he WAS a serious buyer though). Overall, Legend bought at least 25% of the entire five session Pogue Collection!
No one believed us when we kept saying this is a different market then the last Pogue sale. So many things have changed. Plus, with it being the last Pogue sale knowing no more incredible coins like these will be sold probably made a few prices rise.
We thought we had crazy bids, but the one coin we were totally floored on-the coin we wanted so badly-the 1C 1852 PCGS MS66RD CAC brought a staggering $94,000.00. We had estimated this wonder of nature at $50-$75,000.00. We did not think anyone would be as crazy as us. We were shocked when there were at least 3 of us bidding at $50,000.00 (including one of he sharpest dealers in the biz). At $50,000.00 the buyer jumped in and started bidding! You must understand, this coin is the FINEST EVER KNOWN Braided Hair Large Cent. When Naftzger owned it he graded it MS70 Red. PCGS should have graded it at least an MS67RD. Does not matter what the holder on it in the end. There is NO other coin like it. Is the owner buried? Maybe by 10% today if they had to resell it-we are still there to buy it (this coin has haunted us since Nafzger). In the end this freak of nature brought “market”. Our customer for it who was exhausted had told us “you go buy it-you decide what to pay”. We did not want to do that, fortunately we had him back on the phone. If not we might have paid $100,000.00 for it! A growling congratulations to the new owner.
This sale went beyond insane. We did not think Pogue would ever make a profit on his Missouri Cabinet coins. HELL YEAH HE DID! We have a coin from that sale we can not sell still. It makes a HUGE difference when you offer a huge collection vs one or two coins.
In the end, the bargain of the show turned out to be the famous $1 1804. Yes, it really did sell! It bought $3,290,000.00. Our partner Bruce Morelan summed it up the best about the 1804: The new trend is specialized set building (thanks, Registry!). The 1804 is an orphan coin in that regard. It doesn’t belong in a bust dollar set…and even the other proof dates don’t truly belong with it.
EVERY coin that was TRUE quality in this sale (no, not all were) did bring BEYOND INSANE MOON MONEY! Save for the 1804 we did not see anything else slip through the cracks.
Also: The Blue Moon Collection did exactly what we thought it do: CRAZY! Legend spent almost $1,000,000.00 there. Of course we were losers on the big coin-the 1794 which sold for $910,625.00 (we under bid it at $881,250.00). We’re proud to say we kept the 1888 PR set intact! We did buy two of the Gobrechets. While there were a few coins that did bring weak numbers, it was because they were dark and had problems (these old time collections are famous for being hit or miss on quality). Here too EVERYTHING that was TRUE quality brought staggering money.
Removing the 2 1794 $1 we had purchased in past major auctions, Legend spent OVER $6,000,000.00 hammer between these two sales-which was more then any other sale (by $1 million). In fact, Stacks informed us this AM we bought 30% of last nights sale. We have never represented more aggressive collectors then between these two sales. We all wondered can Gardner and Newman Collections ever be rebuilt? The new super breed of collector seem hell bent on building even better sets (yes, that IS possible). The Pouge Sale completed a beyond insane Type set that will rival any and is worth $30-$40 million easy-for a collector who is not even American! We fought against this collector for a few years over the very best coins on the market. Our sincere congratulations to his completion (and a BIG grin from us now that we can buy more of the great stuff that hopefully will come around).
We will be writing more on our experiences during the sale of the entire Pogue Collection soon.
NEWPS
We are more fried then over done french fries. So we really do not have the capacity to remember the highlights of our NEWPS. Like the broken record we have been, we can tell you-this was one of our worst buying trips EVER at the show!!!!
Most likely we will NOT post NEWPS next week (still check back-you never know). We expect to have many NEWPS mid month as people who bought coins from the auctions and shows have them ready to sell (unless of course someone wants to sell us a collection)!
ALL NEWPS ARE NOW POSTED
LEGEND RARE COIN AUCTIONS
www.legendauctions.com
BID NOW! Our April Premier Sessions Internet Only Sale closes this Thursday 4/6 starting at 10 PM Est. We assure you, while not of Pouge caliber, each coin was vetted by our world class numismatic staff for quality and eye appeal. You can bid with FULL confidence in our ALL our sales!
Watch for details of our May Regency Sale starting later this week. We have many amazing coins in it!
If you have any questions or wish to consign, contact Julies Abrams-julie@legendauctions.com or Greg Cohen-greg@legendauction.com.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR WISH TO PLACE AN ORDER, PLEASE EMAIL US: legend@legendcoin.com. WE DO NOT CHECK OUR PHONE MESSAGES UNTIL 9AM MONDAY!
