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Posted: February 13, 2016 09:19 AM EDT| 1 Reply
Legend lives for numismatic events like this. The Pogue Collection ranks among the greatest ever formed. This past week group III was sold at Sotheby’s in NYC.
Having had time to plan, we thought we were ready. However when the sale started, the action was far different then what we had anticipated. The results were much weaker then we had expected. The two highlight coins-the 1C 1793 Chain PCGS MS65RB and the $5 1815 PCGS MS65 BOTH sold for sums far less then expected and were UNDER $1 million each. In fact shockingly NO coin broke $1 million in last weeks sale.
Legend purchased the 1C 1793 Chain for $998,750.00-an absolute steal! We had figured it for $1.3 million to $1.5 million hammer. Others had figured it for $2 million. We were stunned when it opened and closed with no other bidding then us. Of course our client was delighted. We view what happened with this coin as a total aberration. This proved out when we turned down a serious offer of a $150,000.00 profit (this coin was bought for a collection, and our client was willing to pay much more). So even though the coin brought LESS then a million at the sale, the market still dictates it is worth NORTH of $1 million.
What happened at this Pogue Sale also happened at the second Gardner sale. Prices unexpectedly went weaker then most people thought. At the auction the players were dazed and did not really react. We admit, we badly fumbled the early $5’s by not buying any even though we made meager efforts. Then AFTER the sale there was all kinds of action. In fact, for the 48 hours after this sale, we had more calls and saw more of the players trying to scurry around and BUY the coins that sold too cheap. One major player said this auction needed a “do over”.
The upper end of the market was pretty much hit by a “perfect storm” during the sale. You had a wildly rocky stock market and oil crashing, two areas that made many wealthy people not feel so wealthy or like spending at the time. Plus, there was one little issue that we think made a huge difference in the sale of the Pogue III coins. Many collectors did not know the coins had been sent to CAC. That did make a difference as we were shocked after the sale when we had purchased a coin for someone and he asked “will it CAC”?. We thought he knew. We know of at least one other major player who did not know and stayed away.
In the end, the buyers from this session got some of the greatest coins that exist at great prices. The Bust Dimes and Bust halves did NOT go cheap at all (there were only scattered bargains). We were thrilled with all we bought-Legend spent $2.8 million total. Like many other dealers in the room, had our minds wrapped around what was happening, we’d own MANY more coins!
A CORRECTION OR A CRASH?
The market is experiencing a correction-NOT a crash. The Pogue sale only made it public news. While we all saw this coming, we did not know what extent it would happen. Our strong opinion is this “breakout” proof of a correction is not only healthy, but also proves we are near the bottom. In November of 2014 we first saw the market really start to turn south. Activity has been VERY choppy since then. In our opinion, we feel the majority of people had been in denial this all was happening. The FUN Sale of 2015 was the first visible sign to everyone. Prices at that sale were off by 20%. The rest of 2015 was totally up and down. HOWEVER, the great coins-like the ones sold in Pogue still were bringing record prices. By the time this Pogue session rolled around, the stock market had wiped out TRILLIONS of dollars and made people feel poor. in addition to the financial markets turmoil, the entire Gardner Collection and TWO other Pogue sessions had been sold. That is a monumental amount of coins to be absorbed (which they all were), while wallets and mindsets were changing. Something had to give.
We think the rare coin market is finally near the bottom. We believe what happened in this recent Pogue sale was long due. The rubber band just could not stretch anymore. That’s OK. The reaction was immediate. Both dealers and collectors looked back and said “hey this is too cheap, I am a buyer for sure now”. Many people are clearly comfortable with the new levels-especially at the upper end of the market. If there were to be a “do over” of the Pogue III sale, we assure you, the prices would be stronger.
In the overall market, you can buy a lot of dreck dirt cheap. You still can not go out and buy great coins in any frequency. Part of the problem has been the dreck that’s left to buy has exaggerated the markets fall. We all thought the good stuff would hold up, but the dreck fell to such low levels it confused buyers as to what to pay. So everything is off 20-30% from last year which was quietly off from the year before.
We are not hyping by saying we think this is the real bottom of the entire coin market. Having Pogue not have any record prices or any coins break a million to us, seems healthy-NOT a disaster. You can’t have a stock market smacking everyone around and a coin market that just keeps rising because great coins are being offered. Barring a total melt down of the stock market, we fully expect the next Pogue Sale to be HEALTHY and bring full record prices. There are still plenty of buyers of coins out there!
We have an exceptional group of NEWPS this week. Of course the grand highlights are our Pogue purchases. You’ll find the Pogue coins to be of exceptional rarity, quality, and especially the prices most attractive! Highlights include:
There is also a fabulous partial 1862 Proof set and several gorgeous Proof Type coins.
We were weak in adding gold as it is very much in demand and there are so few PCGS CAC pieces available.
LEGEND RARE COIN AUCTIONS
We are only days away! Thursday night starting at 4:30 PST our auction goes live in Las Vegas. Be prepared! We’ve already had dozens of collectors discuss phone bidding, representation (we do that for free), and even financing their purchases. You need to do this NOW! Call or email Julie Abrams
Bidding has been especially active. We think this sale will bring solid to strong prices. Keep in mind, there are 484 handpicked lots, not dreck!
At this point the coins are in transit, so we can not provide physical descriptions until late Tuesday. If you need to speak to us Tuesday or beyond, please call our cell:732-233-0719
We look forward to working with everyone on this exciting sale. Hard to believe its our 16th!
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