NO SUGAR COATING ABOUT TODAY’S COIN MARKET
Anyone who tells you the coin market is on fire is either lying or wears rose colored glasses. There is a clear and hugely diversive two tier market right now. We see it on the bourse floor and we clearly see it in every auction-not just ours. People who own “stuff and dreck” are finding out their coins are now only worth cents on the dollar. However, people who own Legend caliber quality are still enjoying strong demand. This drop is very troubling to us as there is a still a bunch of money out here in the world. Yet again look at the results of major recent art sale: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/hoppers-%E2%80%98chop-suey%E2%80%99-sets-artist-auction-record-at-dollar919-million/ar-BBPGavb?ocid=mailsignout. Are coins really that different? You just can’t hang a coin on the wall.
We do NOT see any immediate recovery. Many people are doing the usual “oh at FUN things will pick up”. No one has noticed there has been only one really good FUN Show in the last 4 years. We never expected this slow cycle. We figured yeah, typical summer ANA doldrums, then as usual in October there would be a rebound. This year, it kept sinking, no rebound. It is our opinion, it could take as long as six months to bounce back. Again this is for the majority of the market-NOT the top 1-5%.
Once the turmoil stops out side coins and things like oil, stocks, and real estate rebound, collectors will feel good again and come back to coins. The glut of dreck and junk that lingers is only driving prices down. The inaccuracy and lack of understanding values hurts badly too. However, find a GEM Early Gold piece and put it in auction (like the 1795 $5 PCGS MA62 CAC we just sold for a record $176,250.00) and it will be hard fought battle to buy it. We can tell you this with out exaggerating: our biggest customers thrive in markets like this. They are even stronger buyers. Even if they pay what seems like crazy money today, they know it is not. Bob Simpson did that back in 2006-2016 buying some of the greatest rare and GEM gold ever at super strong prices. Now he is sitting back and saying no to us with every offer we bring him. In markets like this (as Mr Simpson taught us) you do not buy for today, you buy for tomorrow.
Legend Numismatics LOVES Proof Barbers and has always suggested them to our customers. We are sitting here so angry the pries have dropped to UNREALISTIC levels and not that many people seem to care. Do you know you can build a complete PR 66 10C set for LESS then $40,000.00 even adding some crazy color or a few cameo’s? You have finite mintages mostly UNDER 1000. The average coin would be priced around an affordable $1,500.00-$1,600.00. We LOVED them when they were $2,000.00 each. Today, these coins just sit and drift lower. All we can do is scratch our heads in wonder (we are very proud to say this week we placed a monster 10C 1897 PCGS PR68 DC CAC). There are so many other series too. Last week we bought a PCGS PR67 CAC Liberty Nickel for $900.00. We lost sleep over the fact way back in 1978 we bought a raw PR 65 (probably a 66 or 67 today) for $450.00! We’re going to buy up every PR67 CAC we can at these levels. Better gold is something you should fully load up on. The herd mentality never stops amazing us. They only want the bulls to run to feel safe. NOW is for sure when you jump in.
We fully proclaim this a world class BUYERS market. The only problem: supply. There is so little true quality and rare coins to buy today. It annoys us to no end some people make a down cycle seem so evil when it comes to their coins. But if their GE stock drops 35% and is in a nose dive, that is okay. Many people will buy more as other sit and cry. It really does NOT take much for the coin market to even up then thrive again.
Last, we spoke to one of our best customers just to see his level of comfort knowing this crazy up and down coin market. This collector tries to buy only the very best and will really pay up to do so. He pointed to a coin in front of him and touched the CAC bean. He said “as long as I have this, I am comfortable”. Powerful statement. We ask you to really think about the meaning of what he said. Bigger money is not stupid money-usually (we’ve seen a few ding dongs in our time).
TIME FOR CHANGE AT PCGS
Things are now changing. The problems that got the market tied up is partially the out side world: the stock market, oil, etc. The real secret “dirty” fact: gradeflation finally took its toll. For years Legend has been trying to do something about it. No would listen because everyone wanted a quick buck. We know just how toxic the culture has become even with collectors who to get all their coins regraded when they are done. Now with the resignation of our friend on Willis, that rubber band has finally broke at PCGS. For the last few years we screamed change was needed in their model. Now change IS coming (not via the way we had hoped). Every one every where is talking about gradeflation and the effects it has had on the market recently (gradeflation has kind of been like an over night happening that took 20+ years). Its no secret PCGS needs submissions to stay in business. They need someone who can now tame them (Don Willis was more heavily involved in building PCGS China business).
If PCGS picks the right person to be the next PCGS president maybe they will finally be on the collectors side and tackle these issues. The CEO of PCGS Joe Orlando (whom we have had many chats with) wants nothing less. However so far the rumors we have heard are they might be picking a fox to watch the hen house. We are NOT happy about these rumors. However until the time happens, we do support PCGS and want them to succeed. Its no surprise that a new CEO wants his own people to staff and run PCGS. Its that way in ANY business.
We all knew the time when David Hall and Don Willis would retire or what ever. No one expected it this way. Legend Numismatics wishes both of them an enjoyable retirement. We have spoken to Don, he is just chillin. He told us he has not had a real vacation in years. Few people know that Dons real contribution to PCGS was creating its IT platforms. IT was his background. Legend Numismatics can never pay him back enough for all he has done for us-including listening and allowing us to do our silly idea of holding an auction at its shows! Don, has supported us since day 1 of the auction co being in business. We have known Don for well over 20 years back when he was a collector.
So far, we all are dreaming the new team will tackle gradeflation and will be more consumer oriented. YES, this project CAN be down successfully. It will take a few years and a lot of hard work and support. Hopefully in 5 years when coins have risen dramatically everyone will breathe a huge sigh of relief.
NEWPS
We never let our customers down with our NEWPS. This week is pretty much gold oriented, but we have some great silver coins as well.
The highlight of our offerings is the extremely rare $20 1854 LG DT PCGS MS64 CAC-tied for FINEST KNOWN. PCGS showed his coin no mercy. This coin will be posted next offering. Other highlights include:
$1 1897 PCGS PR66 CAMEO CAC
$5 1802/1 PCGS MS64 CAC
$10 1797 LE PCGS AU58+ CAC
$10 1799 SM ST PCGS MS61 CAC
Neat stuff huh? Be sure to check out our regular inventory as we have many coins that deserve great homes like yours! We will always do our best to help buy the coin of your dreams. Contact: George Huang. legend@legendcoin.com
We will be adding many more Grayson coins soon. Stay tuned.
ALL NEWPS ARE NOW POSTED
LEGEND RARE COIN AUCTIONS
www.legendauctions.com
Our Regency sale #29 is now closed. Considering the very choppy waters we were facing, the sale did extremely well. LRCA sincerely wishes to thank every one who participated in this sale.
There is no question the market is two tier. The great coins did really well, while the “stuff” did marginal to weak. Even as good as we are, we can only wave a magic wand and obtain crazy prices when the product is all there. Face reality, NON CAC coins that are just okay-no matter how rare, are not going to sell strong any more. Its not even market timing. Its a shift in buyers knowledge and tastes.
Look at how several of the great coins in our sale did:
H.01 1793 PCGS AU53 CAC $41,125.00
1C 1814 PCGS MS 66 RB $88,125.00
5C 1912D PCGS MS67 $41,125.00
5C 1900 PCGS PR68 CAC $21,150.00
10C 1959D PCGS MS68 FT $5,288.00
$1 1889CC PCGS MS63 DMPL CAC $73,438.00
$1 1924S PCGS MS65 CAC $17,038.00
$10 1857S PCGS MS64 CAC CENTRAL AMERICA $76,375.00
$2.5 1909 PCGS PR65 CAC $88,125.00
$3 1888 PCGS PR66+ CAC $67,563.00
$5 1795 PCGS MS62 CAC $176,250.00
$5 1811 PCGS MS64 CAC $52,875.00
$20 1906 PCGS MS66 $64,625.00
We are also proud to say of all the coins listed above, only ONE was bought by a dealer. In fact, in this sale 92% was purchased by collectors. We want nothing more then to have coins go to great homes and not the crack out or coin docs.
LRCA is always out to improve. We do appologize to our customer base we made a few boo boo’s in this past sale. We do strive NEVER to have duplicate coins (unless it is from a single major collection). We screwed up by taking too many Columbian Halves. We also kinda messed up having a CAC coin and a none CAC coins of a date (same grade). Yes, the CAC coins sold-the other did not. Those mistakes will NOT happen again. Further, we are way tightening up on our quality. Some how this past sale we had a few too many marginal coins from dealers. We are saying NO to many consignments right now for January. We can and WILL improve!
LEGEND FINAL DECEMBER SESSIONS SALE
This will not be any ordinary monthly sale. We will have coins that range in value from $1,500.00 all the way up to $50,000.00. We have some extremely impressive consignments in already. There is one really fresh six figure deal that includes some cheaper gold-all off the market for many years and should be careful looked as they might + or better (NO promises)! We will make full announcements shortly about this sale which will close December 16th starting at 9 PM Est. We WILL have all lots for viewing in our offices and at the Las Vegas PCGS Invitational Show.
A HEADS UP-FINAL CALL
This is the final call for consignments to our first ever stand alone sale in Beverly Hills CA -PRE Long Beach at the end of January. We already have 3 anchor collections! Every one will pay attention to this sale. ALL coins MUST be in our offices by November 30th-NO exceptions. It is not BS for to tell you space is extremely limited.
If you have coins you wish to consign: contact Julie Abrams: julie@legendauctions.com, or Jessica berkman: jessica@legendauctions.com. They will pay careful attention to your exact needs and craft selling options best fit for you and your coins. We assure you, we are NOT like any other auction house.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR WISH TO ORDER OVER THE WEEKEND, PLEASE EMAIL US: legend@legendcoin.com. WE CHECK OUR PHONE MESSAGES 9 AM MONDAY.
