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Journal entries from the founder of Legend Numismatics, Laura Sperber, help you stay current with the real happenings of numismatics. A former ANA Board Member, Laura has handled close to $1 billion worth of rare coins to date and has assembled many of the greatest collections ever. Her views and opinions are as "inside" as you can get. Warning: ALL her Hot Topics articles are pretty blunt!
Posted: February 27, 2016 06:58 PM EDT| 1 Reply
DRECK: a messed with, low end, problem or UGLY coin. Dreck has nothing to do with a coins grade or value.
Hard to believe with so few NICE coins available the coin market is in a major funk. Records are still shattered at all price levels (except at the extreme top) when great, fresh, and eye appealing rarities show up. BUT there are a whole group of mid range coins that have fallen dramatically in price. Some have fallen to ridiculous levels for no real reason. We believe with coins being so liquid and most of the good coins off the market, dreck has taken over by force. Its the majority of what is available to trade today.
My thoughts started earlier today as I was writing up the 10C 1913 PCGS PR67 CAC. It has a pop of 6 with one 67+ higher. Even in Cameo the pop is only 4 with NONE higher (the last Cameo PR67CAC sold for $4,935.00 05/2015). So why after 30+ years of operations is a coin like this selling for only $3,750.00? If you could find every date in PR67 for the series that would add up to much LESS then $100,000.00 to build a complete set. And with the 1913 pop of 6-ONLY 6 people could ever build complete sets anyway! I can’t believe demand is that weak that possibly the ONLY PR67 you’ll see for a very long time is so cheap. I believe the dreck from other PR 67 dates ruined the price for this coin recklessly. In order to keep the liquidity, dealers just lowered their bids to make the dreck more tolerable. What a turn off it it became for collectors paying higher prices for better coins.
Collectors should not be scared off by this situation. Prices for GOOD quality coins should NOT go any cheaper. Its not like there is a glut of nice coins. Look past the dreck. Opportunities really do exist. Pay any decent premium today and buy the nicer coins-the market has put them on sale! As we’ve been saying, MS and PR Seated and Barber Type has been hit the worst. Then semi generics like $5 Indians in GEM which had double whammy of being manipulated by a huge telemarketer years ago to sky high prices. Why are PR $20 Libs only bid at $80G when it would cost almost $100G to buy a PCGS CAC piece (of which almost none exist)? We could go on and on about ridiculous low bids and prices.
I believe had we been less liquid as a market, more people would hold their coins longer and not make them into the first dumping item when ever they need to raise money. You can’t dump antiques, art, or even most collector cars by simply making a few calls or hitting bids. Sure the coin market would be smaller, but not by much if we were not so liquid. Its kind of ironic that being so liquid is actually causing some illquidity in the market.
This time will pass as many other down cycles have. I am trying to stress that there are more HUGE opportunities then ever. A turn around won’t take much. Sadly, the dreck is here to stay. It will forever be a tiny % of the grading services errors. Until there are more better coins to trade and more confidence back in the market, look for prices to lumber where they are. THIS IS WHEN YOU LOAD UP ON BETTER COINS!
This is NOT a hyped Hot Topics for the masses. Its what I see going on and the opinion I have formed. I’ve been a major player since 1979 (and will never forget how badly the 1980 boom ended in 1981). I was right in the middle of the 1989 cycle too. This cycle is really mild vs all the others. I’ve seen it all. What bothers me is how many people (which is by far multiples more) then we have ever had collecting coins sitting on the side lines for no good reason when it comes to buying NICE coins. I highly doubt if I offered $3,500.00 I could buy all 6 1913 PCGS PR67 CAC pieces. In my opinion, these should be $4,500.00 and the Cameos $8-10,000.00. Other dates should NOT be selling for UNDER $3,000.00 in PCSG PR67 CAC!
Myself and George are bullish about coins. We are sneaking off a coin or two every so often. We know the rare coin market as good as anyone and better then any other area we could invest. The inexpensive coins (due to the market making them that way) we’re buying today, we expect HUGE returns in 5 years. We put our own monies in what we know and believe in.
If you have any comments, email me direct: firstname.lastname@example.org.
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