No, we are not quite there yet, as not everything is “screaming hot.” However, there is a unanimous consensus among dealers that the market is very strong. We are selling a ton of coins. Both “Coins of the Week” sold immediately for around $25,000.00 each, and we recently did a deal on a Buffalo Nickel for $80,000.00—the list goes on!
For the first time in many years, Legend cannot post “NEWPS.” Why? We could not buy enough coins at the Chicago show, even though we tried very hard. Back home, we are being offered almost nothing. The PCGS CAC market for better coins has such a large appetite that there are no coins to be had. The gigantic number of coins from ANA Auctions—we’d estimate 90%—are now off the market. What we call a “black hole” has only grown yet again. This makes sense, as gold is at an all-time record level, many people are making a lot of money with crypto, and the stock market is high. People have money. Compared to many other areas of collectibles, rare coins are still cheap. We just represented a collector this week and bought the 50C 1796 PCGS AU53 CAC for $336,000.00, all-in from the auction. It is the only PCGS CAC 1796, period. The coin is 229 years old, is of top quality, and has been off the market for many years. In the art world, something like this (which we consider a masterpiece) could easily fetch $1 million.
Unless there is a radical crash in gold or the stock market, we see the coin market continuing its upward momentum. Even one longtime skittish dealer we know thinks coins will rise at least 30% by the end of the year. The two biggest hurdles will be the poor price reporting and the lack of supply. We urge collectors to understand that PUBLISHED PRICE GUIDES ARE WAY BEHIND in many instances (though not all). We cannot stress enough that if you see a coin that is genuinely rare or special, and the price seems 10-20% over published prices, there’s a good chance the dealer had to pay over. That 1796 50C PCGS AU53 CAC we just bought cost us $336,000.00, while the CU value was only $210,000.00. Do NOT pass up good coins today; you will be sorry soon. Even coins that rose during Covid are now starting to turn around. We certainly cannot buy nice coins at published price guides these days! In fact, we spoke with one major retail dealer in Chicago who was shaking his head, saying, “The prices I am being quoted are the same or higher than my retail.” This is why we warned you—but what we have now is dealers paying our listed prices to get coins. Our inventory is at its lowest level in over 15 years. OMG!
A TREND WE LIKE
Think about this: if the grading services mess up on 5% of the coins they grade, that’s over 50,000 coins that are bad. Then, add in the amount that has been doctored. Yikes! Those coins are selling cheap today, and so are many C-level coins that were not “beaned.”
We are seeing a trend that is not new but has really started to gain momentum: “DOWN CROSSING.” A lot of dealers used to do nothing but upgrades. Now, we see many who are looking to downgrade a coin. That is also helping the market a bit. Unfortunately, there is a huge two-tiered market between the nicer CAC-beaned coins and the poorly graded ones. The margin of price difference can be as high as double! That is NOT an exaggeration!
At least having more dealers “down-cross” gets properly graded coins into the hands of collectors with no economic pain for them down the road. With the market’s hunger today, the more coins available help keep values rising. We were somewhat shocked to learn that the more dealers we speak with who do crack-outs, the more they look to “down-cross.” That is a huge change from what it used to be and is a great trend! Now, we have to work on collectors who think that because they finish a collection, they need to regrade everything. Those days are coming to an end.
GOLD
Okay, we called it a year ago with an all-out BUY. Today, we think gold has peaked—for now. We can’t yell loud enough to take some profits! No one is that smart to know where the top is, but if you have junk coins or generics or want to buy rare coins before they spike, SELL YOUR GOLD AND SILVER TODAY! Sell your US Mint coins while you can. It’s typical for people to hold until it’s too late. We are telling you: sell now! .
We are famous for being “gold bugs.” We like gold. However, we have not seen the public or collectors paying $4,000.00 for MS 65 Saints (although they are buying MS 66-66+). It’s the Central Banks fueling gold’s rise. The premiums of many coins are still tiny for that reason (no public buying). So, sell your duplicates or take some profits while gold is still up there. As of this writing (8 AM, Friday, Oct. 3), spot gold is $3,856.00. Do not wait until it hits $3,500.00 again to sell when premiums fall back to negative levels.
We also believe part of why the coin market is strong is that we know many collectors are selling their generics and other items to buy rare coins. It’s a very smart, like-kind trade. We are just uncomfortable with where gold is now and think it will go down before any further potential rises. There is an old adage: you can never get hurt taking a profit.
NEWPS
Oh, the pain! We have no “NEWPS” this week. We could not buy enough coins in Chicago to have an offering. Our grading from the show has not come back yet, and that is a whopping four coins. We are working overtime to buy right now. In another rarity, we only have two smaller coins we will be offering from yesterday’s auction. EVERY coin we bought was spoken for, including the six-figure pieces. That was another first.
WE NEED TO BUY YOUR COINS. We can either take them on consignment (that gets you the most) or buy them outright. NOW is surely the time to sell, not when the market slows and you end up getting much less.
Legend will buy coins other than PCGS CAC or CACG. However, know that we will not buy everything, as there are some things we just do not handle. Please offer us. Call or email us.
WE DO NOT CHECK OUR PHONE MESSAGES UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY. WE DO CHECK OUR EMAILS DAILY OVER THE WEEKEND.
