A ROUGH START FOR THE SHOW
The show was a nightmare to attend due to horrible hotel situations. Many dealers could not stay at their normal hotels (including us). Plus, Ubers were very expensive, and you sometimes had to wait over 20 minutes. We can only hope the show promoter notices and works to improve things. They need to listen to the dealers, or they will avoid taking tables and flock to smaller shows. Apparently the Inner Harbor is undergoing revitalization, and many places are either gone or closed. Between that and the crime downtown, it might be time to scale back the shows to two until things calm down. FACT: At 2:00 on Thursday, we saw a major end-to-end aisle in front of us empty of people. That is unfortunate and bad for dealer business. We definitely think collector traffic overall was light. We guess that, like us, most dealers made their money Tuesday and Wednesday. And having our table somewhere in the outer bowels of the hall did not help us. The entire trip was by far one of our poorer Baltimore experiences. But we are serious creatures of habit, and we will be back for the next show in hopes of seeing improvements (including maybe a better table and nicer hotel).
THE PRE-SHOW
We weren’t sure if the market would remain strong after two major shows and gold sliding $200.00 in a day. We were shocked by the serious action we witnessed. No question: dealers are flushed with cash and massively need coins. Legend had 4 appointments Tuesday. We could have (and probably should have) gone home after the last appointment! We sold 5X more than we had expected. Did NOT see that coming. That led to us having a very light, almost unappetizing display of coins when the show opened to the public.
There was a wholesale trading room Wednesday. We sat outside and found our own little table by the entrance. Nice. We had a friend just arrive in town and sit with us. We watched him sell about $150,000.00 in an hour. People just kept coming over to see his coins, even before he unpacked. He had soup to nuts. Also, by that time, our stealth secret seller buddy had reported to us his sales numbers, which were far beyond amazing and what we didn’t think he could achieve for the whole show. The scary thing was that he probably still had 20 appointments lined up Thursday and Friday to show coins to. WOW! Another major seller we spoke to claimed he had already sold $1.6 million. People came in as early as Sunday to see both of them.
We did really well primarily because all 4 important buyers told us we had the nicest coins. They all shook their heads about the lack of quality coins available. This is a very dangerous situation in many ways. It lowers the grading standards because inferior coins are being cracked out and resubmitted. And it hurts collectors because fewer nice coins are available in the end. Because we will not lower our standards when it comes to buying, we came to the show knowing it would be frustrating to find what we need. On Tuesday and Wednesday our blood pressures were sky high. We’re back to the panic that we’d have to close up due to a lack of coins. The one thing you could buy was white Morgans (nothing sexy, just common dates). If you wanted non-CAC material, there’s plenty of that. Want dark, ugly type? Oh yeah, all the dreck you wanted could be bought. Some tables even had high-power displays of NGC NO CAC coins prominently. UGH. The black hole had finally sucked up too many coins.
We got lucky on Thursday. An old friend offered us a neat collection of coins. The coins had been off the market for a while. Our numismatic fairy godmother guided us, and we spent $250,000.00 with our friend! We also bought a stunning six-figure gold coin from someone else (which we had seen in LB and could not get out of our heads). We have not spent that much in nearly a year! In past years, our total buying numbers would be considered weak (we remember the old Long Beaches where we’d spend $1 million BEFORE the show started). Overall, we did great at the Baltimore Show!
GRADEFLATION IS BACK
When we use the term “dreck,” it is not about cheap coins. Our definition of dreck is doctored, ugly, overgraded, bad coins. We saw way too much of it at the show.
One thing we especially disliked: a larger dealer was bragging to us that most of the coins in his case were upgraded. We could tell most of his coins lacked eye appeal and had a maxed-out look. He certainly was not shy about his prices; he was asking way too much for those coins. We didn’t like seeing that. That kind of behavior damages the coin business’s reputation.
Who is really at fault here? Is it the dealer playing the game or the grading services rewarding him? Legend has spent 30+ years fighting the grading service on coin doctoring. Those guys still exist, however, on a much lesser scale. Grade inflation has reappeared in a significant way. The dealers no longer have access to nicer coins. It’s sort of like what is for sale are the coins at the very bottom of the marketplace (we’d guess the bottom 10%). So what gets cracked? Borderline pieces and dreck. It is our strong opinion that standards have slipped again—at least for the short term. We did hear many dealers complaining that services were tight—but my goodness, look at the junk they are submitting! And clearly a little bit of it is getting through.
How can you protect yourself? Buy CAC-beaned coins. Since there are not many to choose from, do NOT lower your standards. Wait for the right coin to appear. Buying inferior coins only motivates dealers to keep resubmitting coins that really have no business being in a higher holder. Grading services dislike buying back their own work. Think about this: if even 5% of all rare coins ever graded are pure dreck, that’s 50,000+ coins!
We are clearly in a BULL market. Since prices have risen on most coins, be careful what you buy. If the music stops, quality and eye appeal will be what helps you survive. We marvel at how we watch the dealers wholesale dreck as if these pieces were the last coins on earth. The majority go to the newbies buying on these apps. The rest is sold through auctions and dealers with slick websites. All we can do is sit on the sidelines and hope the services really do tighten up.
HOW TO PLAY THIS MARKET
We keep emphasizing this. Build a box of 20 (we now put a note on coins below $10,000.00 if they should be included), or build a Type set. Here is a novel idea: just buy what you like. You do not need to build any kind of series collection. Lucky us, we have TWO people building MS $10 Indian Sets in GEM and 2 people building MS Saint sets also in GEM. GULP! There is just no way we can ever complete these sets all PCGS CAC, unless a major collection gets sold. At least we have patient customers. We are working with another collector who had to give up assembling a complete PCGS CAC set of a series and is now buying the keys in NON CAC. A very challenging situation. But he wants his coins. We will NOT let him buy a bad coin. It’s frustrating for us as well. If you are buying NON CAC, USE A COMPETENT DEALER. The best thing a good dealer will ever say to you about buying a coin: NO!
As we mentioned repeatedly, the deep black hole has grown endlessly in the past year. A small amount of money from the wider outside world flowed into coins and dried up the top tier almost overnight. Legend is deeply struggling because of it. Until Thursday, our spending was only $35,000.00! That won’t help us, as the next major show is CSNS in late April. OUCH! Collectors are holding on tight to their coins. We can’t even get people’s duplicates or generics. The antiquated price guides are another problem. We’ll dive into that another day.
We do think gold will hold in a range of $4,500.00-$5,250.00 for the next few weeks. Silver is dangerous. We can’t see it back near $100.00.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Legend has suspended taking credit cards on its Buy It Now feature due to attempted fraud. We do not keep credit cards on file, so you will have to call us.
New buyers MUST provide references if paying with a credit card.
NEWPS
OMG! We do not have a lot, but we FINALLY have a few really special NEWPS. It makes us feel better when we can buy coins in our comfort zone. Unfortunately, we struggled to buy coins priced below $10,000.00. These darn apps are taking those coins off the market at lightning speed. Please be patient and check our NEWPS every week. Sign up for our Coin of the Week emails too. We offer some pretty neat stuff!
LEGEND IS BUYING. WHAT DO YOU HAVE FOR SALE? We will buy an entire collection to get the coins we need. Legend is famous for being a top buyer. Try us!
If you have any questions or wish to order, email or call us.
LEGEND IS CLOSED FRIDAYS; HOWEVER, YOU CAN REACH US BY EMAIL EVERY DAY. WE DO NOT ANSWER PHONE MESSAGES UNTIL 9 AM ON MONDAYS.
